Poll shows Riley's $Tax Plan$ Unpopular

Poll shows Riley's $Tax Plan$ Unpopular

07/27/03

KIM CHANDLER
News staff writer

Gov. Bob Riley is trailing in voter support for his $1.2 billion-a-year tax and accountability referendum, with the staunchest opposition coming from low-income people who would likely benefit from income tax breaks in the plan, according to a new statewide poll.

The survey of 500 registered voters showed 49 percent would vote against Riley's plan and 39 percent would vote for it if a referendum were held now. Twelve percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The poll was conducted Monday through Thursday for The Birmingham News and television stations FOX6 in Birmingham, WHNT in Huntsville and WSFA in Montgomery.

"Right now he loses, but it is still possible for him to win. It's too early to predict," said poll director Larry Powell, an associate professor of communication studies at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

With 44 days left until the Sept. 9 election, anti-tax forces have an obvious edge, according to the survey. Riley can win, but he must reach low-income voters and continue to sell the popular parts of the plan, including a college scholarship program, Powell said.

The strongest opposition came from voters with household incomes under $30,000, according to the survey. Among those voters, 58 percent were against the plan and 27 percent were for it. Middle- and upper-income voters were divided, but slightly more likely to vote yes than no.

"You get the feeling they don't realize this is aimed at helping them," Powell said.

Riley, in a telephone interview Friday, said he's encouraged by the poll results.

"The fact is, a majority of people in Alabama will be paying less. We need to do a better job of educating people. If we do that, it's very winnable," Riley said.

The Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama estimates that at an annual income of $30,000, the state income tax would rise by $178 for a single person but drop by $277 for a couple filing jointly with two dependents, under Riley's plan.

Bob Gambacurta, a spokesman for a group fighting the plan, said people of all incomes oppose such a sweeping tax increase.

"People in Alabama don't trust Montgomery politicians with another $1.2 billion of their taxes," said Gambacurta, a spokesman for the Tax Accountability Coalition.

For Riley to win, he must perform a delicate balancing act, holding on to his existing support from middle- and upper-income voters while reaching out to lower-income and black voters who either distrust the plan or likely didn't vote for him for governor, Powell said.

Black voter turnout potentially could make the difference for Riley, Powell said.

Forty-four percent of surveyed black voters said they would vote yes, compared with 38 percent of whites.

"Riley has to reach into the black community. He's got to communicate with low-income voters. If he does that, he's in pretty good shape," Powell said.

The job is simpler for opponents, he said.

"The anti people, they keep on doing what they doing," Powell said.

A proposed 4 percent tax on many repairs and installations, such as car repairs, was the most disliked. Seventy-eight percent said that made them less likely to vote for the plan.

Powell said that tax could be used by opponents as a "silver bullet" to kill the plan because it is so unpopular. Voters will be asked to approve or reject the entire plan, not its various components.

The most popular parts of the plan were proposals to raise the state income tax deduction for dependents and give free public university tuition to qualified high school graduates, according to the poll.

In asking voters about the overall plan, pollsters asked this question:

"As you know, the state is holding a referendum on Governor Riley's plan for taxes, schools and government. That proposal increases the state income tax exemption from $4,600 to about $20,000, raises income tax rates on families earning more than $150,000, raises cigarette taxes by 14.5 cents per pack, raises property taxes and provides college scholarships to Alabama students who have a 3.0 average and score 20 on the ACT. If that referendum were held today, would you vote ...," questioners asked. Respondents could answer yes, no or undecided.

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	07/27/03 KIM CHANDLER News staff writer Gov. Bob Riley is trailing in voter support for his $1.2 billion-a-year tax and accountability referendum, with the staunchest opposition coming from low-income people who would likely benefit from income tax breaks in the plan, according to a new statewide poll. The survey of 500 registered voters showed 49 percent would vote against Riley's plan and 39 percent would vote for it if a referendum were held now. Twelve percent of those surveyed were undecided. The poll was conducted Monday through Thursday for The Birmingham News and television stations FOX6 in Birmingham, WHNT in Huntsville and WSFA in Montgomery. "Right now he loses, but it is still possible for him to win. It's too early to predict," said poll director Larry Powell, an associate professor of communication studies at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. With 44 days left until the Sept. 9 election, anti-tax forces have an obvious edge, according to the survey. Riley can win, but he must reach low-income voters and continue to sell the popular parts of the plan, including a college scholarship program, Powell said. The strongest opposition came from voters with household incomes under $30,000, according to the survey. Among those voters, 58 percent were against the plan and 27 percent were for it. Middle- and upper-income voters were divided, but slightly more likely to vote yes than no. "You get the feeling they don't realize this is aimed at helping them," Powell said. Riley, in a telephone interview Friday, said he's encouraged by the poll results. "The fact is, a majority of people in Alabama will be paying less. We need to do a better job of educating people. If we do that, it's very winnable," Riley said. The Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama estimates that at an annual income of $30,000, the state income tax would rise by $178 for a single person but drop by $277 for a couple filing jointly with two dependents, under Riley's plan. Bob Gambacurta, a spokesman for a group fighting the plan, said people of all incomes oppose such a sweeping tax increase. "People in Alabama don't trust Montgomery politicians with another $1.2 billion of their taxes," said Gambacurta, a spokesman for the Tax Accountability Coalition. For Riley to win, he must perform a delicate balancing act, holding on to his existing support from middle- and upper-income voters while reaching out to lower-income and black voters who either distrust the plan or likely didn't vote for him for governor, Powell said. Black voter turnout potentially could make the difference for Riley, Powell said. Forty-four percent of surveyed black voters said they would vote yes, compared with 38 percent of whites. "Riley has to reach into the black community. He's got to communicate with low-income voters. If he does that, he's in pretty good shape," Powell said. The job is simpler for opponents, he said. "The anti people, they keep on doing what they doing," Powell said. A proposed 4 percent tax on many repairs and installations, such as car repairs, was the most disliked. Seventy-eight percent said that made them less likely to vote for the plan. Powell said that tax could be used by opponents as a "silver bullet" to kill the plan because it is so unpopular. Voters will be asked to approve or reject the entire plan, not its various components. The most popular parts of the plan were proposals to raise the state income tax deduction for dependents and give free public university tuition to qualified high school graduates, according to the poll. In asking voters about the overall plan, pollsters asked this question: "As you know, the state is holding a referendum on Governor Riley's plan for taxes, schools and government. That proposal increases the state income tax exemption from $4,600 to about $20,000, raises income tax rates on families earning more than $150,000, raises cigarette taxes by 14.5 cents per pack, raises property taxes and provides college scholarships to Alabama students who have a 3.0 average and score 20 on the ACT. If that referendum were held today, would you vote ...," questioners asked. Respondents could answer yes, no or undecided.
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